Will the Barbie movie boost the Mattel stock?

Overview of the topics

  • Stocks Highlights: In the premarket U.S. trading on Monday, shares of Mattel Inc surged after the release of the Barbie movie.
  • Social Data: Barbie movie's triumph boosts Mattel, Gap, and Crocs, with potential profits from merchandise sales.
  • Financial Data: Despite the movie's buzz, analysts are skeptical about its potential to create a lasting boost in sales for Mattel.
  • Onchain Data: Crypto gamblers are eagerly rushing to place their wagers on the highly anticipated film Barbie.
  • Deep Dive: On July 26, the House Financial Services Committee approved the FIT Act and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.

Stocks Highlights

Barbie: Hollywood's game-changer

In premarket U.S. trading on Monday, shares of Mattel Inc surged after the release of the movie "Barbie," centered around the iconic doll produced by the toy company. The film has become domestically the highest-grossing movie of the year, positively impacting Mattel's stock.

Graph source: Google Finance

Starring top-notch actors Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, "Barbie" wowed audiences and raked in an impressive $155 million in ticket sales during its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada. Warner Bros, the distributor of the film, also experienced a boost in its stock value during premarket trading.

Image source: CBR

The movie's admissions surpassed the previous record set by "The Super Mario Bros” movie in April, which earned nearly $146 million in ticket sales. Additionally, Barbie exceeded the box office performance of "Oppenheimer," a highly anticipated three-hour epic directed by Christopher Nolan, which collected $80.5 million.

Image source: Twitter

Social Data

Which stocks will benefit from Barbie?

The Barbie movie's release is expected to positively impact retail stocks, given its popularity and concurrent release with Oppenheimer, leading to a playful combination called "Barbenheimer".

Image source: Reuters

The first retail stock that will profit from the Barbie movie's success is Mattel, an American multinational toy company. It is one of the largest toy makers in the world and is known for producing a wide range of popular toys, dolls, action figures, and games. As the owner of the Barbie brand, Mattel will gain from any success the movie experiences, as it leads to higher toy sales.

Graph source: Google Finance

The second is represented by Gap, an American multinational clothing and accessories retailer headquartered in San Francisco, California. In fact, it has merchandise connected to the Barbie film, like clothing and accessories, which consumers may seek out after watching the movie.

Graph source: Google Finance

The third company is instead Crocs, an American company known for its distinctive and comfortable footwear. The shoe company is among those selling Barbie-branded merchandise, making it another potential firm to benefit from the movie's popularity.

Image source: Twitter

However, while the Barbie movie may have a positive impact on these retail stocks, traders should also consider other significant developments, such as Phunware stock's performance, a new rating for SiriusXM stock, and even a Chewy executive's retirement.

Financial Data

Mattel's Barbie movie boost: will it last?

The Margot Robbie-starrer Barbie movie generated significant excitement, and Wall Street believes it could temporarily boost Mattel's iconic doll sales, which have been in a slump for a year.

Graph source: Mattel

While Mattel will receive a small share of the movie's box-office revenue, the main benefit is anticipated to come from increased toy sales after the extensive marketing campaign around its release. Retailers like Zara, H&M, and Gap have joined in by selling Barbie-themed merchandise, including hoodies, perfumes, and toothbrushes.

Graph source: Mattel

UBS' Kocharyan predicts an "overall halo effect" on the Barbie franchise due to the release, with more opportunities in consumer products, particularly among an older audience. Anyways, the margin of 80% on royalties streams will impact Mattel's earnings positively.

Graph source: Mattel

Despite the movie's buzz, analysts are skeptical about its potential to create a lasting boost in sales for Mattel. They argue that the film's target audience is not the typical young children who traditionally buy Barbie dolls, and its PG-13 rating might limit its appeal to younger viewers.

Graph source: Mattel

Mattel has been facing some challenges, including falling sales and net losses, attributed to high costs, slowing consumer spending, and retailers reducing inventories. Barbie, which was Mattel's top brand for years, saw a decline in gross billings in the first quarter of 2023.

Graph source: Goldman Sachs

In terms of the stock market performance, shares have seen modest gains in 2023, and its forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) is higher than its rival Hasbro's, indicating a higher valuation relative to its earnings.

Onchain Data

Crypto gamblers are betting on Barbie too

Crypto gamblers are eagerly rushing to place their wagers on the highly anticipated film Barbie, which is directed by the acclaimed filmmaker Greta Gerwig.

Graph source: Polymarket

In the fast-paced world of crypto gambling, the current buzz is around the epic showdown between the iconic doll and Nolan’s "Oppenheimer" on the popular betting platform Polymarket. Polymarket, known for facilitating bets using cryptos, offers the opportunity for enthusiasts to participate in the speculation of specific events by purchasing or selling shares.

Graph source: Polymarket

As the stakes rise, the market value of Barbie shares currently stands at $0.95, promising a potential return of $105.26 for a $100 wager. Contrarily, Oppenheimer shares are valued at $0.06, offering a staggering return of $1,530 if the film outperforms Barbie, an impressive 1,430% ROI.

Image source: Twitter

If Barbie surpasses Oppenheimer in terms of domestic box office earnings during its 3-day opening weekend, the whole market will resolve in favor of Barbie and vice versa.


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Deep Dive

Congress approves digital asset regulation

On July 26, the House Financial Services Committee approved the FIT Act and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which propose a regulatory framework for digital assets, with oversight given to the CFTC.

Image source: Ledger Insights

The legislation now awaits a potential floor vote in the House. However, it faces resistance in the Democrat-led Senate, particularly from Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown, who opposes the cryptocurrency industry and prefers the SEC to regulate it.

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